What determines a country's success at the Olympics? Demographics must play a part. The laws of probability tell us that people with the potential to be the best in the world, in any field of human endeavour, are more likely to be found in big countries than in small countries. But, from a selector's perspective, knowing that you have the natural talent is one thing - finding it, and nurturing it is something else entirely. That is why a country's

"Out along the edge Is always where I burn to be The further on the edge The hotter the intensity Highway to the danger zone Gonna take you right into the danger zone" Kenny Loggins, from the opening scenes of Top Gun, 1986 Yesterday, the Bank of England joined us, and many other organisations, in forecasting that UK growth next year would be somewhere between 0% and 1%. But as our chart shows, that is a dangerous place to be.

It may be a coincidence that the results of the EU banking stress tests are scheduled for publication as soon as the closing bell sounds at the New York Stock Exchange later today. Whether this timing was planned or not, at least it will give investors and EU decision makers ample time to decide how to react, or panic, before financial markets open on Monday morning. It may be too late to avert an Italian banking crisis whatever the results. Alas, non-performing

The Bank of England published this week a working paper that analysed the consequences of issuing so-called central bank digital currency (or CBDC). According to the authors, the macro-economic outcomes seem favourable to say the least – reductions in real interest rates, distortionary taxes and transactions costs could permanently raise the level of GDP by as much as 3%. Drawing parallels between CBDC and Bitcoin, some commentators have questioned whether the Old Lady has adopted the adage “If you can’t

While many of us in the UK have been struggling to understand the consequences of last month’s Brexit vote, our neighbours across the Irish Sea have seized the opportunity to release a rather staggering set of economic data. Ireland’s Central Statistical Office this week revised up its estimate of growth last year from an already impressive 7.8%, to a literally incredible 26.3%. Talk about rubbing salt into the wound! Readers will not be surprised to learn that last year’s growth

"I know what you're thinking about," said Tweedledum; "but it isn't so, nohow." "Contrariwise," continued Tweedledee, "if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic." From Lewis Carroll’s - Through the Looking-Glass Gove and Johnson, the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of British politics, sent shockwaves through Westminster yesterday by reversing roles within a couple of eventful hours. If that left you confused, you’re not alone. But markets were largely

Housing markets are prone to bubbles, when prices soar relative to incomes and then collapse all at once. And housing bubbles, because they tend to be associated with excess bank credit, can be very damaging for the whole economy when they burst. It tends to mean a banking crisis too. There is a bubble inflating in the European housing market: can you see it? Yes, that's right! It's in Germany. Incredibly, that is the emerging concern among German policymakers and

He has insulted women, Mexicans, journalists, people with disabilities and many more, but Donald Trump continues to bulldoze his way ever closer to the White House. Is there any stopping him? And what does this mean for markets? For all of Trump's progress, there has been very little reaction in financial markets so far. Do they really care? Perhaps not. After all, Hillary Clinton all but wrapped up the Democratic nomination this week and is the favourite to win November's