"A man is judged by his deeds not by his words" Russian proverb Despite a disparate set of statements on the campaign trail, there is remarkable consensus among market participants about what to expect from Donald Trump's presidency: Corporate tax cuts? Huge. Increased infrastructure spending? Tremendous. Burdensome regulation? Wrong. The much-maligned financial elite is now close to unanimous: US economic growth will accelerate, helping to lift domestic stock prices and the US dollar. The President-elect's words - and tweets -

Betelgeuse is a red giant star sitting on the right shoulder of the hunter Orion, who rises on the southern horizon in winter in the northern hemisphere, announcing the arrival of bare branches, frost, plumes of breath in the night air: winter. On a clear night, its redness and its size are evident to the naked eye. Betelgeuse is approaching the end of its life cycle. It will explode into a supernova any day now (well, at some point probably

To say that it has been hard to read the real intentions of President Elect Donald Trump since the election would be an understatement. Which is it to be: Trump Lite or Donald Dark? Below is an impression of how the Fathom view has evolved as the 'facts' (in our 'post-fact' world) have emerged. Fiscal stimulus is going to happen, the stock markets are up, the US dollar is stronger and US monetary policy is on the road to normalisation.

It is nigh on 200 years since David Ricardo first set out his theory of comparative advantage in his classic work 'On the principles of political economy and taxation'. Since that time it has been a unifying belief among economists that a country should channel its resources into producing only those goods and services in which it has a comparative advantage, exporting whatever it does not need around the world. But what are different countries good at? Revealed comparative advantage

From his infamous “whatever it takes” speech back in July 2012 to being ‘attacked’ by a protester and doused in confetti back in April 2015, Mario Draghi’s tenure at the helm of the European Central Bank has been eventful to say the least. While his term does not expire until 2019, this week marked his fifth anniversary. Other policymakers aim to give nothing away in the run up to press conferences, but in the case of Mario Draghi, something entirely

As government ministers are fond of reminding us, the UK is set to be the fastest growing economy among the G7 in 2016. But there is another comparative statistic that is more damning. If we rank the G7 economies according to levels of non-housing investment as a share of GDP, the UK is bottom of the heap - a position it has occupied for the past 20 years. Those hoping for a government-led drive to raise the productive capacity of

Imagine a world in which Donald Trump is the President of the United States, and where he delivers much of what he has promised. The newly inaugurated President sets the ball rolling with a trade war, slapping import tariffs on Mexico and China. Foreign countries and US firms respond with lawsuits. Then a wall is built between Mexico and the US. Fearing the blocking of remittances, the neighbour to the south caves in and foots the bill. The US population

Unless you have been living under a Brexit rock for the past few weeks, you are doubtless aware of the mess in which Deutsche Bank finds itself. Between mid-2007 and late last year, the price of Deutsche Bank shares fell around 75%, as low interest rates, tougher regulation and reduced revenue hit profitability hard. The price has fallen a further 50% since then. As if to add fuel to the fire(sale), the US Department of Justice announced that the German

Every lawyer worth her salt knows there is a way of phrasing questions that creates a trap for the witness. Questions like: "Have you stopped fiddling your taxes?" are designed to preclude any non-incriminating answer. And questions like: "What was it that first attracted you to millionaire Paul Daniels?" are designed to undermine any answer that doesn't conform to the 'clue' that is in the question. It looks increasingly as though the survey that generates the official Chinese GDP data