Brexit: 7/1 for the UK to leave the EU. Trump: 5/1 to win the next presidential election. Do bookmakers know anything about politics? Today we aim to answer that question. First impressions are important, or so they say. In my first week at Fathom, a colleague was looking slightly bemused when assessing the odds on the timing of the next UK general election. I quickly volunteered my services, confessing to a certain level of expertise regarding betting markets. Maybe not
“I work all night, I work all day, to pay the bills I have to pay Ain't it sad And still there never seems to be a single penny left for me That's too bad” ‘Money, Money, Money’ — arguably one of Swedish pop group ABBA’s most popular hits — celebrated its forty-first birthday last week. The song tells a familiar tale of a young woman struggling for money. It’s a story we can all relate to. Cash — we
Ever get tired of waiting for Donald Trump to cut taxes, Emmanuel Macron to reform the entire euro area, or to see David Davis take some notes to a Brexit meeting? With volatility in financial markets at record lows and asset prices at, or close to, record highs, traders seem to be twiddling their thumbs and waiting for the good news to finally arrive. The Bank of England raised rates for the first time in ten years this week, but
"The things you own end up owning you." Tyler Durden, in the film 'Fight Club' Much has been written, and continues to be written, about the decline of bricks-and-mortar retail spaces - shopping malls etc. - in favour of online retail outlets such as Amazon (see for example an article in the Wall Street Journal). But underneath that shift, which is undoubtedly real, perhaps there's another shift, away from the consumption of material things in general, and towards the consumption
Ever feel like you're doing all the work? At Fathom we have an unwritten code of offering our colleagues a drink whenever we make one for ourselves. A legacy, possibly, of the early years of the company, when the team was a lot smaller. Or testament to what a nice, friendly bunch we are, perhaps. But for all of this niceness, there have been, and may still be, a few issues with this system. When I joined Fathom, making a
"A person’s name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.” Dale Carnegie The name Kevin was made famous by a fifth-century Irishman, later canonised in 1903. It gained popularity through the twentieth century, peaking in the UK and US during the 1950s and 1960s, but has been in secular decline ever since. In an increasingly globalised world, that may have something to do with its poor reputation elsewhere. In France, the name is associated
At last, something for black-cab drivers to be happy about! Keen users of controversial ride-hailing app Uber were dealt a substantial blow as Transport for London rejected Uber's application to renew its licence to operate in London. The precariousness of the gig economy has come into focus yet again. But what exactly is the 'gig' economy? The term gig is borrowed from the world of music, where (typically) a band or musician is paid in weak beer to play a
Ever watched a dog chase its own tail? It’s a thankless task for the dog, but can be amusing for the observer. An exercise in futility always has comedy value, provided it’s carried out by someone else. We shake our heads and smile at the dog’s foolishness. Next time, though, perhaps we should look in the mirror for a laugh — particularly those among us who make or comment on monetary policy. In chasing its tail, the dog goes in
This author happens to be German and an economist. There are some perks associated with being German. For example, the summer months of every second year, when major football tournaments take place, are something to look forward to. We tend not to drop out in the early stages of the tournament against smaller football nations, such as Iceland. In contrast, being a German economist can be as frustrating as supporting the English national team (or so I imagine). Germans have
“There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns. The ones we don't know we don't know.” Donald Rumsfeld, 12 February 2002 At the time, Rumsfeld’s quote, made in response to a reporter’s question about evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, was seen as a gaffe or else a