If Bob Marley were a central banker…
When the Fed meets later this month, it is now widely expected to cut interest rates. Inflation has remained sluggish and there are signs that the economy is slowing, but cutting rates at the first signs of danger seems strange: not only are pre-emptive cuts rare, but the unemployment rate is below most estimates of the natural rate, and on a downward trend. The economy is operating above capacity, and a cut would reinforce the view that the Fed is