Identified cases of COVID-19 are rising in Europe, including in countries that were among the hardest hit in the first wave of infections. Popular support for government handling of the outbreak is particularly low in France, Spain and the UK, perhaps unsurprisingly. These are all countries where the reproductive rate of the virus seemed to move decisively above one in late summer. Support has always been low in France and Spain, averaging 39% and 41% respectively in weekly YouGov polls.[1]

If I asked you to think of some profitable and safe investments over the last few decades, gold, government bonds or real estate might come to mind (or, depending on your definition of safe, Bitcoin). What probably didn’t come to mind was whisky. Now hang on, this isn’t the opening line of a sales pitch where I attempt to sell you my semi-drinkable, homemade whisky through an elaborate pyramid scheme. The reason I mention it, is that last week a

We Brits often view the working habits and customs of our European compatriots with an interesting mix of admiration and confusion; late starts to the working day, mid-afternoon siestas, and congé annuel — the customary annual holiday that sees economic activity virtually grind to a halt in August. But in finding that balance between work and play, it seems Europeans are not only more productive within the office but also more willing to return to the office. According to various

In old TFiFs, I found myself arguing that happiness is mostly a subjective state that is hard to achieve through the completion of tasks, setting rigid goals or the narcissistic pursuit of social status. Rather, it’s more easily attained through new experiences, chasing curiosity and meaningful social interactions with little regard to the possibility of regret or failure. In mainstream economics, the notions of utility, status and happiness are often used interchangeably and limited to the rather narrow axiom of

Summer’s drawing to a close, and there’s huge uncertainty about what is to come. Will a vaccine be approved this year? Will the coronavirus return with a devastating second wave? Will Lionel Messi really leave Barcelona on a free transfer? (Yes, no, maybe so are my unscientific opinions.) One of the stranger aspects of this summer has been the UK government’s approach to indoor dining. Many countries have banned it, out of concern that it’s a ripe breeding ground for

Many of us are entering a new normal where working from home is the standard, and spending hours of our day mindlessly commuting is a thing of the past. This has increased the amount of time at home people have to drink beer and binge-watch their favourite Netflix show (Below Deck in my case). The enjoyment we derive from killing our brain cells with these reality TV shows might be sufficient justification for this new way of working, but what

This is a job advert, as well as a blog. During the COVID crisis, Fathom (like many other organisations and individuals) has made a conscious effort to help in the ways that we can, by providing free, regular coverage of the pandemic and its impact on the global economy to clients and non-clients alike. It felt to us that this was a moment to stop worrying quite so much about the bottom line, and to focus on doing what we

Cheer up, it’s International Beer Day! Two years ago, we first published the BIRRA — the Beer IndicatoR of Real Activity — which showed an apparent relationship between the price of alcohol-related equities and quarterly euro area GDP growth. In the spirit of International Beer Day, and in light of the unprecedented COVID-led global recession, we’ve decided to revisit that analysis to see what, if anything, the BIRRA can tell us about the recovery. If there’s one thing we can

Economists like to compare things — UK GDP was 2.2% lower in the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Normal humans like to compare things too — Sally and Tom had a cat, which was fluffier than other cats A good, helpful, economist will put things into a little more context. For example, knowing that the Q1 print was the largest quarterly contraction since 1979 Q3, provides a little more colour. It’s also

Three weeks ago, I finished my studies and returned to hallowed halls of Fathom Towers, virtually at least, working on our Financial Vulnerability Indicator (FVI). While I would love to bore you all with the riveting decisions involved in building the FVI, most of you wouldn’t read past the first paragraph. So instead, I’ll use it as a neat hook to talk about something you’ll be far more interested in: the evolution of policy and why it matters now. For