“It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” This pithy remark has been attributed variously to American baseball player Yogi Berra, Danish physicist Niels Bohr, and even Mark Twain. Regardless of origin, it can be readily applied to the science – or, as I shall argue, the art – of economic forecasting. When attempting to predict future values of any economic time series it is worth giving at least some thought to its order of integration. Over some

Millennials, listen up! Quit the gym, forget the morning trip to the coffee shop, cancel your Netflix subscription, and scrap your plans to go on a ‘bouji cruise’ – you might just save enough to put down a deposit on a house, according to British TV presenter Kirstie Allsopp. The Location, Location, Location host put the cat amongst the pigeons this week with her comments in a national newspaper advising young people how to get onto the property ladder. It

A decade ago this could’ve been the sci-fi spin off from the cult classic Snakes on a Plane. Today it is reality. As the rich venture into space, should we be celebrating their achievements or be wary of the path they’re laying for our future? Commercial interests in space aren’t new. Private companies have been operating in the industry from the early 1960s since the launch of the satellite Telstar 1, which enabled the first live broadcasts between the US

The couple of days after returning home from a business trip always feel similar. Home is where you let things slide, while the fight-or-flight hormones drain out of your body. Home is where you flop and wallow, where you can be listless and without drive. Where you can be fallow. And that is just what you need. I know this, but it still surprises me every time it happens. Returning in December from a hectic week on the east coast

The third Monday in January is officially considered to be the most depressing day of the year, known as “Blue Monday”, when memories of Christmas are fading, temperatures are low, days are dark, and the next bank holiday cannot arrive soon enough. This year’s Blue Monday fell on the Monday that has just passed. The definition of Blue Monday was established in 2004 at the request of a UK-based travel booking company, and is allegedly based on a mathematical formula,

Over the years, as Apple has cemented its hold on the mobile phone market, the price of the iPhone has increased dramatically. Back in 2007, when Apple was still competing fiercely with BlackBerry, a device would've set you back around $500 — while the iPhone 13 Pro Max was priced around the $1100 mark on its release in 2021. And yet this doubling in prices can’t be observed in measured CPI, with US data showing a 70% fall in the

January is the New Jersey of months (apologies to any readers from the Garden State). After a heady December, many people face the New Year broke and cold (and hoping they have just a cold). During these dark days, I’ll forgive those who wish it could be Christmas every day. I’ll go further, and deliver some good news: it really is Christmas today — at least for many of the 260 million Orthodox Christians around the world. This is because

When I worked at the Bank of England, many years ago, a (very) senior official once asked why Bank staff felt the need to seasonally adjust the raw retail price index (RPI). If I’m going to be generous, I might say that this was a rhetorical question: he was merely encouraging a group of economists, many fresh out of university, to think through why some prices might vary in a systematic way through the year. Many macroeconomic data display seasonal

Ever heard of the phrase ‘naked wedding’? Until recently, I hadn’t either. But it turns out it’s increasingly popular in China, and it’s not what you first think! Instead, it’s the decision to do away with nearly all of the traditional ‘must-haves’ for a Chinese wedding, such as owning a house, a car, and an expensive wedding ceremony, in favour of a more frugal affair. At odds with China’s well-established customs, this is not always done out of choice, but instead

A cleaner wrasse is brave little fish that can be found picking off parasites from larger fish. Often from their mouths. And often from fish that would otherwise eat them. This is a good deal for both fish: the cleaner gets a meal and the bigger fish, or ‘client’, gets a clean. But why doesn’t the client just close its mouth (with the cleaner still inside) once the cleaning service is nearing its completion? This question that has puzzled evolutionary