If football comes home, will GDP come home too?

9 July 2021|

England reached the final of a major football tournament for the first time in 55 years on Wednesday night. Standing in the way of bringing it home on Sunday are the Italians, who have seen and done it all before. An England win would be epic and fun (if you are English, and not Italian like my colleague Andrea Zazzarelli), but could it have any more measurable economic benefits? Some of these, such as inspiring young people to take up

It’s all in the game

2 July 2021|

Fathom’s management team went away together a couple of weeks ago, to spend a few days in a startlingly beautiful place called The Secular Retreat, near Totnes in Devon. We discussed strategy, drank wine, went for walks — and played games. The games were the best part. A game is an activity with an objective, with one or many players, a set of rules and (sometimes) an audience. (On that note, the tentative reintroduction of crowds to summer sports that

Something’s coming right around the corner, Andrew Bailey

25 June 2021|

“Something's coming. I can feel it, and it's coming right around the corner at me, Squadron Leader!” Hilts (Steve McQueen), The Great Escape. For small companies to retain their independence, they need two things: to make profits, and to grow. But the growth part of that is in expectation: it’s important to see beyond current vicissitudes (whether positive or negative) to what growth is likely to be in years to come. Whether you’ve had a good year or a bad

In defence of the economic cycle

18 June 2021|

“No more boom and bust”, was Gordon Brown’s mantra. He served as chancellor of the exchequer following Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997, taking over the reins himself as prime minister in 2007. During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09, which saw the UK economy contract by close to 6%, Mr Brown added an important qualifier. All he had in fact promised was that there would be “no return to Tory boom and bust”. Economic cycles are generally seen as

A tale of two anniversaries

11 June 2021|

A couple of weeks ago marked my tenth wedding anniversary, a day I have fond memories of as much for its watershed moment as for the partying. And party we did! It’s always a good sign when the bride, who had allegedly been actively waiting for this day for over ten years, only remembers about half of it. Or perhaps a tell-tale sign; the jury is still out. Against the odds, I still have vivid images of the day as

Most charts suck

4 June 2021|

I’m sure you’ve heard the age-old phrase every economics student past and present can recite: “Correlation does not imply causation”. Cause and effect between two variables cannot be deduced purely on an association between them. That’s why when we plot two variables, such as the number of people who drown after falling out of a fishing boat and the marriage rate in Kentucky, or US crude oil imports from Norway and drivers killed in collisions with railway trains, we can

The trouble with BMI

28 May 2021|

Lockdowns have not been good for the waistline of people stuck at home - not least me. Noticing that I was out of breath doing up my shoelaces, I dusted off the bathroom scales and… Horrors! An unpleasantly large number met my eyes. I had put on a corona-stone, and maybe more. A diet was required, but how much should I lose? The NHS weight loss calculator divided my weight in kg by my height in metres squared and gave

Hey kids, let’s talk about inflation

21 May 2021|

Everyone’s talking about inflation right now. With US consumer prices rising 4% in the year to April, it’s not hard to see why. Ask the general public what they think of this and they’ll probably succinctly conclude that higher prices are a bad thing. If you asked a typical economist for their views, what kind of answer do you think you’d get? Well, for a start, it's unlikely it would be succinct. But, if you did finally extract an answer

Dogecoin to the moon

14 May 2021|

How many dogs have been to space? More than 20, if you’re interested.[1] During the 50s and 60s the Soviet Union sent numerous dogs into space, some of which never returned. Many investors will currently be hoping that Dogecoin (pronounced “dough-j”— you’re welcome, boomers), a meme coin (pronounced “meem”, no need to thank me twice), meets the same fate as the canine astronauts, and never returns from its sky-high price. (My impression of a general pile-in was confirmed when I recently

Should we limit alcohol sales?

7 May 2021|

For most British people, buying a bottle of wine on a Friday night after work, or picking up a few cold beers in preparation for Super Sunday, seems like the most natural thing in the world. If Boris Johnson suddenly announced that this wasn’t allowed, it would probably cause outrage. However, this is the grim reality for Swedes like myself, who grew up in a country with a state alcohol monopoly. When I lived in Sweden, there were few things