‘How do we know that two and two make four? Or that the force of gravity works? Or that the past is unchangeable? If both the past and the external world exist only in the mind, and if the mind itself is controllable – what then?’ – George Orwell, 1984 How do we know that the mini-budget caused the pound to fall? Or caused gilt yields to rise? How do we know that the pension funds that were forced into

I don’t know about you, and call me a curmudgeon if you like, but I do not like paying tax. It hurts. When I look at the tax bite out of my salary, I wince. When I think about the VAT I pay out of post-tax income, I grumble. When I reflect on the corporation tax my company pays out of its profits after it has paid gross salaries and employers’ NICs, I groan. When I pay the tax on

What makes people happy? I’m not looking for anything particularly profound here. I mean, what kind of macroeconomic backdrop provides people with a sense of wellbeing? With UK consumer confidence at an all-time low, the drivers of happiness seem a particularly relevant topic. Inflation is at multi-decade highs, and people tend not to like rapidly rising prices. But fixing the inflation problem is likely to mean higher interest rates, higher unemployment and falling house prices, and many people don’t like

I once read an anecdote about a young Pablo Picasso in which he was several months behind on his rent. The landlord came by and told him that if he didn’t come up with the money he’d be evicted on Tuesday. But Picasso exclaimed, “Before you kick me out, just think, years from now people will look at this building and say the great Picasso lived there.” The landlord looked at him blankly and said, “And if you don’t come

This summer marked a personal watershed as I packed up my home in London and moved back to Rome. It’s a homecoming that has been more than a year in the making, and increasingly resembles one of my family’s favourite movies, The Twelve Tasks of Asterix, a cult animation from the 1970s. Comparing my progress to the plot of the movie, I am currently at a standstill in the middle of task number eight, where Asterix and Obelix are stuck

Throughout history there have always been observations humans can’t explain. In the ancient world, unexplainable events were often attributed to the all-encompassing brush of 'fate'. The Roman goddess Fortuna, goddess of luck and fate, was often depicted standing on a ball, indicating her uncertainty, and blindfolded to show her lack of bias. Romans could conveniently stop worrying about understanding things that, as far they knew, were out of their hands. Today, we rarely credit fate; but does it still influence

I rarely come across anyone who doesn’t know some part of this story. For some, it's the cunning trick that brought an unnecessary war to an end. Others will talk about the lost man, who cleverly won the war but now can’t get home. Still others remember the faithful woman who waits for him, staving off suitors with her own gentle ruse. Many can quote the names as well as the incidents, which is to say that the story lives

Everyone loves a rogue. Think Han Solo in Star Wars, Jack in Titanic, Hilts in The Great Escape, and the Artful Dodger in Oliver Twist. And the popularity of silver screen rogues hasn’t gone unnoticed in the world of politics, where in recent years we’ve seen comedian Beppe Grillo, leather-clad Yannis Varoufakis and scruffy-haired Boris Johnson all array themselves in the mantle of anti-establishment rule-breakers (some more convincingly than others) in their bid for high office. Sooner or later, all

Smallest violin in the world alert: delayed planning and pent-up demand from other would-be travellers meant that I faced a potentially eyewatering cost to spend a week by the Mediterranean. With flights to Italy coming in at $1000, car rental at $2000 and Airbnb at $3000, I opted instead for a staycation in London. This #firstworldproblem is one example of substitution. At the moment, the price of almost everything is rising, but some prices are rising by more than others.

Nine of the Fathom team (myself included) recently spent the best part of a week at Brantrake House in the Lake District, discussing our strategy (after the COVID-induced pause) for Fathom USA. We spent a day at High Ground Farm on Birker Moor where we learned how to move a huge pile of wood, how to get in the way while the professionals (the wonderful John and Gaby) sheared and sorted sheep, and how to yell incoherently before jumping off