The June inflation data for both headline CPI and RPI were precisely in line with the projections we made in last month’s UK update, at 2.0% and 2.9% respectively. Getting the forecast of any economic data release exactly right will always involve a certain amount of luck. Nevertheless it gave us some reassurance, whether warranted or not, as it was the first time we had based our published forecasts on a new and much simpler model of the monthly inflation…