The ONS’s preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the third quarter of this year showed a decline in output of 0.4% over the previous quarter. This confounded the average City forecast and that of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, both of which had expected to see a 0.2% rise. There is nothing unusual about economists getting their forecasts wrong, but the furore that surrounded this particular forecast error, large as it was, was different. Rather than questioning their…