Over the past year Fathom has switched from a below-market-pricing forecast for long-term interest rates in the US and UK, to one that is predominantly above market pricing. It appears that the rise in the term premium, globally, was at least partly a correction, while in the US and UK, a combination of active fiscal and active monetary policy will provide further support to long-term interest rates. Before QE, deficits mattered for long-term rates, with an increase in the deficit…