Significant uncertainty remains about the scale of the tariff increases that will be applied by the Trump administration in the US, and their consequences. It is possible to say however that in the two months since we finalised our Global Outlook, Spring 2025 the macroeconomic outlook has taken a turn for the worse. We find that the odds of a four-quarter contraction in US GDP have risen from around 30% to around 60%. Our modelling work suggests that, in the