Fathom remains cautiously optimistic about the prospects for the global economy as we approach the final quarter of 2024. The policy backdrop to our Autumn forecast, and in particular the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy, will be key to negotiating a complex mix of resilience and potential vulnerabilities. Building on the analysis in our Global Outlook Summer 2024, this note develops the idea that while recession risks have moderated in some major economies, policy adjustments and political uncertainties could…