Global Outlook, Autumn 2023: fortunes diverging
- Global slowdown as tightening takes hold, but the fortunes of the major economies are diverging
- The US narrowly avoids recession, but the euro area and UK do not; China slows
- With inflation past its peak and recession risks still elevated, real rates come down more quickly than is priced in by financial markets
- The US has led the G7 on productivity for decades, while the UK trails behind on almost all metrics
- The dynamism of the US is set to continue over the medium term, while the main factor holding back the UK is a shortfall in R&D spending
![The fortunes of the major economies are diverging](https://www.fathom-consulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Rec-prob-autumn-2023-scaled.jpg)