A sideways look at economics

June has been a busy month for politics in Europe. Fresh from his victory in May’s presidential elections, Emmanuel Macron won a landslide majority in parliament for his La République En Marche! (REM – an interesting acronym for a political party: that’s them in the spotlight, winning their election…). On this side of the Channel, Theresa May lost twelve seats, failing to secure a majority for her party. At the time of writing, the Conservative Party is scrambling to reach an agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland. M. Macron was hailed a winner and May was feeling anything but “strong and stable”.

Sometimes, even when you lose, you win.

The success of M. Macron’s infant party in bringing change to the French political landscape is evident in many aspects of his victory. Of the 577 members of the National Assembly, 429, or nearly three-quarters will be new. A record number of females were elected – 223 versus 155 last time. The average age of deputies has also dropped, in what has been broadly perceived as a resounding victory for the youngest ever French president. A triumph for a new, diverse, young political class, hailing from the centre: Rejoice! Rejoice! Emmanuel has come!

But hold back on the triumphalism. M. Macron’s victory is a lot less resounding than it seems. 49% of those who voted chose the alliance of REM and the Democratic Movement, giving them 350 seats, or almost 61% of the total available. However, with abstentions at a record high of 57%, the proportion of the population that actually voted in support of M. Macron was just under 21%.

As M. Macron will discover, it is one thing to secure support in parliament in a very low turnout election; but it is quite another to garner the support of the country as a whole, particularly if radical reforms are part of your plans. His former boss, Francois Hollande found something similar. Hollande’s party, the socialists, garnered the support of 23% of the population eligible to vote in 2012 – a larger share than REM in 2017 – returning them to power with the support of a handful of other small left-of-centre parties. At that time, President Hollande’s popularity rating stood at 60%. At the recent election, the socialists were all but wiped out, and President Hollande’s popularity was almost as low as any French President had ever endured.

Who really won the French parliamentary election? Arguably, nobody. The traditional parties all lost. The French voted for ‘none of the above’, and got REM as a result.

And sometimes, even when you win, you lose.

In the UK, by contrast, the Conservative Party received just over 42% of the vote, securing 318 seats, or just under 49% of the total number. In stark contrast to France, the turnout in British general elections has been increasing steadily since 2001, and this time abstentions were only 31%. As a result, the proportion of the eligible electorate that voted for Mrs May and her party was 29% – substantially higher than that achieved by either REM this year or the French socialists back in 2012, and 5% higher than the share of the eligible vote achieved by Tony Blair’s Labour Party in 2001, which was returned with a thumping majority. And yet, Mrs May is left with a hung parliament, while M. Macron has a 61-seat majority. And it is highly likely that her days as Prime Minister are numbered. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party is in triumphant mood, while Mrs May appears an increasingly beleaguered, isolated figure, faced with a period of negotiation with her own party and with her counterparts in Europe that would have proved trying for Mrs Thatcher or Mr Blair at the height of their powers.

Political success is not just about elections. Regardless of whether Theresa May manages to reach an agreement with the DUP, the UK is in for turbulent times ahead as Brexit negotiations have only just begun. And the sombre mood in the country, noted by the Queen after the Grenfell Tower tragedy, makes her task even harder. It feels like the tide has turned against her, and it is likely to be extremely difficult for her to reverse that perception. Meanwhile, France is riding high on the cyclical upturn in Europe. It feels like the tide is with M. Macron, at least for now. To quote the bard: “There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.” Julius Caesar, Act 4, Scene 3. If he is able to implement his labour market reforms, and planned spending on infrastructure, M Macron could go down in history not just as the youngest president of France but also as one of the more successful ones.