Introducing Fathom’s Global Outlook service
Fathom’s Global Outlook, Winter 2024
Fathom Consulting is offering a free opportunity to hear insights from our latest Global Outlook – the independent and data-driven assessment of the prospects for the global economy, financial markets and geopolitics that we share with our clients individually each quarter.
Register below to book a private demonstration of our latest Global Outlook.
As 2024 has progressed, investor concern has switched from sticky inflation to anxiety about the prospects for a soft landing. The Federal Reserve has begun to cut its policy rate. However, the US economy remains strong and the easing cycle is expected to be shallow in historical terms. That seems even likelier given the likely policies of the incoming Trump administration with a supportive Congress.
A key part of our story last quarter related to a tug of war between fiscal and monetary policies. Fiscal policy appears to be increasingly in vogue. We see more expansionist fiscal policy in the UK and US as a key driver of higher growth, inflation and interest rates in those economies when compared to the spendthrift euro area. Even without fiscal, private sector dynamism is lacking outside of the US. What cautionary tales should countries learn from the euro area and Japan?
The Chinese economy is weak, with stimulus below the level required to lift it out of its slump. Its EV industry has already faced penalties from the EU and US, and further tariffs are likely. What are the probable effects? Could the authorities be feigning weakness to help avoid wider de-risking?
Agenda
Developed markets central banks were in easing mode
All eyes on fiscal — doesn’t pay to balance the books
Markets booming — can it last?
Poland what are the lessons to be learned? And what not to learn from Europe and Japan
China’s economy: are the authorities feigning weakness?
Book your presentation
Please complete the form below to book your presentation. You will be then contacted by someone from Fathom to arrange a time and the necessary logistics. The webinars usually last about one hour, with plenty of time in there for discussion, and can involve as many people present from your side as you wish.