Despite France’s Sovereign FVI score being forecast to rise, investors do not appear overly concerned. Fathom’s proprietary measure which captures the market-implied Probability of Exit and Default within the next five years (shown by the dark blue line in the chart below) wobbled a little as the COVID-19 pandemic spread to Europe, but has remained lower ever since. That contrasts sharply with the picture painted by the Financial Vulnerability Indicator (a measure more targeted towards the fundamentals), which rose rapidly