Decarbonising European aviation

The aerospace sector is crucial to Europe’s economy but, as one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise, it faces an uncertain future. Fathom has been commissioned by the European Climate Foundation (ECF) to assess how Europe can protect and enhance its leadership position in aerospace as the sector decarbonises, while at the same time achieving its broader economic and political goals.

In this project we look at the pros and cons of decarbonising aviation using sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and hydrogen-powered zero emission flight (ZEF), and their broader economic considerations. Policymakers and industry have largely focused on SAFs, which are more compatible with existing infrastructure and are seen as a ‘ready-to-go’ solution — yet there are clear, and perhaps insurmountable, challenges to scaling up SAF production to the levels needed to fully decarbonise aviation. This finding implies that there is a role for ZEF too, even before we consider its potential benefits compared with SAF.

The fact that a role for ZEF exists begs the question: why is this not yet reflected in policy? If there is a SAF mandate, why is there no ZEF mandate? Fathom’s analysis is designed to inform policymakers and a range of stakeholders from the European aviation sector, by shedding light on these complex issues through an economic lens. We will launch the full results of our study in Brussels in early April 2025, with an in-depth report to follow by June.

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Fathom is a world-leading consultancy specialising in the global economy, geopolitics and financial markets. One of our core focuses is climate-related research. We provide clear analysis and advice on the energy transition, and the economics of climate change, to assist policymakers, strategists and investors.

The European Climate Foundation (ECF) is a major philanthropic initiative working to help tackle the climate crisis by fostering the transition to a net-zero emission society at the national, European and global level. It supports over 700 partner organisations to carry out activities that drive urgent and ambitious policy in support of the objectives of the Paris Agreement, contribute to the public debate on climate action and help deliver a socially responsible transition to a net-zero economy and sustainable society in Europe and around the world.