Fathom’s proprietary measure of China’s economic activity suggests that the true picture of China’s growth is likely to be less rosy than the official statistics show. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP surprised to the upside in the first three months of this year, increasing by 5.3% compared to a year earlier – up from 5.2% in the previous quarter, and beating expectations in a Reuters poll of analysts of a 4.6% expansion. A strong Q1 performance bodes well for the country being able to meet its annual growth target of “around 5%”. However, according to Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator (CMI) the economy grew just 0.9% in 2024 Q1. And our forecast sees an ongoing moderation in growth over the coming years…