Polling data from RealClear Polling, which takes an average from multiple polls across the US (and which is available to view through LSEG’s Datastream platform), shows that Trump is leading the race to win the election. The gap between Trump and Biden widened at the beginning of the year, but shifted towards a closer tie in April (and is now widening again) — suggesting a tight race. This leaves the question of whether economics swings things in Biden’s favour…