We outline below some of the main findings from our new Global Outlook, Autumn 2023 forecast.

Backdrop

The past three months have evolved broadly as we laid out in Fathom’s Global Outlook, Summer 2023. With the worst of the cost-of-living crisis behind us, we do not expect a global recession this year.

Growth in economic activity has remained above trend in the US and accelerated in Japan, but has slowed in Europe. Against this broadly resilient backdrop, real wages have risen further in the US, and have stopped falling in the UK and possibly in the EU too.

We remain concerned by China. The housing troubles there have never gone away, and have resurfaced in recent weeks. They continue to underpin a Chinese economic outlook that is skewed heavily to the downside. Our analysis shows that most developed markets are relatively well insulated from a Chinese housing market slowdown, with the possible exceptions of Germany and Australia.

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