Headlines

• As economic data continue to surprise on the upside, markets flipflop again from worrying about a recession to fretting about higher rates
• A recession is probably delayed, but is still on the cards as the rebound in post-lockdown China has peaked
• The real estate sector holds the key to tracking the long and variable lags of the impact of tighter rates on the real economy
• Drops in real prices in key real estate markets and weaker housing demand in the US present clear fault lines that should be taken seriously

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