Headlines

• This week’s Recession Watch note discusses whether a recession remains a relevant risk to investors
• We have had positive news, if with caveats, in the euro area and US — upside GDP surprises, downside inflation surprises and impressive energy substitution in Europe — but a global recession remains our central forecast
• According to the Fathom Macro Portfolios, investors seem to be two steps ahead of the data, not only looking beyond a recession before it even decisively shows up, but also in increasingly pricing in a pivot from central banks
• The risk of complacency is high; sticky inflation could trigger a sobering reassessment of rates, growth and market returns

[Please click below to read the full note.]