Fathom’s views on the US interest rate outlook are close to consensus: we expect cuts before the end of next year. But equity investors are focusing too much on the pivot and not enough on the reason for it — the coming recession. In our Global Outlook, Winter 2022, we explain why we maintain high probabilities of recession in the coming year, in the euro area (90%), the UK (90%) and the US (70%). While our central view is that global inflation risks have peaked, and central bank credibility will gradually be restored, this benign outcome is more likely in some countries than in others…

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