The global economy is beginning to emerge from the deepest recession since at least the 1930s. Although we continue to see rapid growth in identified cases of COVID-19 in some parts of the world, including many southern US states, that had previously suffered relatively small outbreaks, we remain cautiously optimistic that in aggregate the global economy can continue its steady reopening. In our central scenario, pre-crisis levels of activity are achieved, on average around the world, towards the middle of…