Data, models, tools
At the core of Fathom’s work is a powerful suite of economic datasets, models and tools. These cutting-edge, proprietary resources are the foundation of our independent research and consultancy services. They are continuously updated to incorporate the latest data and advancements, ensuring our insights are consistently accurate and reliable.
The extensive range showcased below are available to clients through subscription. We also design and develop new solutions for clients as part of bespoke consultancy projects. For more information about these or to discuss your needs and how we can help, please get in touch.
Our data-driven approach
Accurate data are essential in guiding important decisions. At Fathom, we scrutinise, verify and enhance data to create gold-standard datasets. These form the basis of all our proprietary indicators, analytical models, interactive dashboards, and analysis.
By building from the ground up, we commit to data integrity at every level and ensure that as data evolve, so do our insights – enabling us to provide policymakers and decision-makers with the complete and accurate picture.
Our global models and tools
Energy Transition Scores
This comprehensive dataset scores 186 countries on the economic opportunities and challenges that the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions will create. Risks and opportunities are broken down into categories and subcategories, with 198 variables providing users with a detailed picture of current and future winners and losers. All this information can be accessed and downloaded via a user-friendly dashboard. It can be used by policymakers to understand countries’ climate policies and forecast geopolitical changes, and by the private sector to identify investment opportunities and risks.
Financial Vulnerability Indicator
Financial crises have severe economic and political consequences, as well as being costly for investors. The capacity to predict these crises is valuable to both governments and private sector stakeholders. Fathom’s Financial Vulnerability Indicator (FVI) does just that, offering a comprehensive assessment of sovereign, currency and banking risk for 176 countries. Combining innovative econometric techniques, cutting-edge academic literature and large amounts of data, the FVI assesses the likelihood of crises occurring in each quarter.
Beyond the headline statistical probabilities, access to the full FVI dataset provides clients with an understanding of what drives potential crises that is presented in a user-friendly, interactive interface. The tool estimates the contribution of each variable to the probability of a crisis, allowing users to understand the source of vulnerabilities. Variables are also grouped into an intuitive set of narrative drivers (imbalances, flows, and reversals) and geographic factors (domestic vulnerabilities, global shocks and contagion effects). The transparency of the model and its economic rigour makes the FVI appealing to a wide range of clients.
Geopolitical Alignment Tracker
Our Geopolitical Alignment Tracker assesses how likely a country is to align with either the US or China in the event of a dispute between the two powerhouses, with four fundamental drivers influencing that choice: trade ties, financial ties, military ties and political freedoms.
The Tracker is trained on the observed behaviour of countries in 24 previous geopolitical disputes, such as bans of Huawei technology and the sanction of Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, rather than merely on voting patterns at the UN. Based on Fathom’s analysis, we are able to sort more than 150 countries into groups: US-leaning, Chinese-leaning and non-aligned.
Global Economic and Strategic Allocation Models (GESAM)
Fathom’s GESAM, used to construct our Global Outlook, are among only a handful of commercially available macroeconomic models in the world. The models cover more than 80% of global GDP and incorporate data that stretch back 150 years. They are grounded in theory and estimated empirically. They are supported by a suite of financial tools and can be used to perform scenario analysis. Combined, they offer our clients an unmatched understanding of the near-term prospects for the global economy and asset markets.
RiCArdo
Our global indicators
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Macroeconomic
Economic Resilience Index
The Economic Resilience Index measures an economy’s ability to withstand negative shocks. It considers a range of factors such as public debt, the current account, market regulation, governance, and voice and accountability. -
Macroeconomic
Economic Sentiment Indicators
The ESIs measure economic optimism and negativity by combining key information from numerous consumer and business surveys into a series of composite monthly indicators for major economies, suggesting whether sentiment is supportive of growth. -
Macroeconomic
Economic Vulnerability Index
This index measures an economy’s susceptibility to negative shocks. The index includes measures of income, trade openness, dependence on strategic imports and financial vulnerability. Higher scores are associated with more frequent recessions. -
Financial market
Fathom Leading Indicator
The FLI is a measure of expected macro conditions six months in the future and based on forecast global industrial production. It uses broad economic variables and reflects how market observers update expectations around the market cycle. -
Financial market
Fathom Macro Portfolios
Fathom Macro Portfolios (FMPs) provide a high frequency, asset-based version of three key macro indicators, covering expected market conditions, liquidity and US inflation surprises. They allow investors to track market sentiment in these variables in near real time. -
Macroeconomic
Fathom Macroeconomic Policy Indicator
The FMPI weights together fiscal and monetary policy to give an overall indication of an economy’s macroeconomic policy stance. A positive score implies that macroeconomic policy is loose, while a negative score suggests that it is tight. -
Macroeconomic
Fathom Misery Index
The Fathom Misery Index combines the unemployment rate and inflation rate, two factors that can be painful to consumers. A high reading on the misery scale implies low consumer confidence and thus subdued consumer spending and economic growth. -
Geopolitical
Fathom Political Index
The FPI indicates a country’s level of political freedom, based on measures of voice and accountability, rule of law, corruption, and institution type. Higher FPI scores are broadly associated with better governance and improved economic outcomes. -
Financial market
Fathom Risk-Off Gauge
Fathom’s Risk-Off Gauge (FROG) provides a probabilistic assessment of market sentiment. The risk-on regime is characterised by higher returns and low volatility, while the risk-off regime features lower returns and higher market volatility. -
Financial market
Fathom’s Long-term Expected Returns
The FLEx model estimates long-term portfolio returns by looking at three components affecting outcomes: the risk-free rate, a long-term risk premium and a valuation adjustment. These are further refined by asset class and different investment horizons. -
Macroeconomic
Financial Vulnerability Indicator
The FVI assesses sovereign, currency, and banking risk for 176 countries. It combines sophisticated empirical techniques, academic literature, and large datasets into a timely set of country-level risk analysis indicators. -
Macroeconomic
Probability of Exit and Default
Using market pricing, Fathom’s indicators track investors’ perceptions of the risk of sovereigns defaulting or leaving the euro. Fathom has also constructed measures of the conditional probabilities (e.g., how likely one country is to default if another already has). -
Macroeconomic
Sovereign Fragility Index
The SFI is a composite indicator of sovereign financial fragility, independent of market judgment and fluctuations in the business cycle. It is based on fundamental macroeconomic drivers such as public debt and net international investment.
Our China models and tools
Capital Flows Tracker
Fathom’s world-leading Capital Flows Tracker sheds light on China and Hong Kong’s true investment patterns and strategic motivations, at a time when China faces increased scrutiny over its overseas acquisitions. The Tracker accurately monitors China and Hong Kong’s financial footprint since 2005 by reconciling a range of diverse datasets. It disaggregates capital flows into M&A and greenfield investment, and is available bi-laterally and by sector. It includes the following details for each deal: country, company, sector, target address, deal status and deal value — including Fathom’s estimates where that information is not publicly available. Data are updated twice a year.
Click here to view our Introduction to the China Capital Flow Tracker animation.
Centrality Tracker
The Centrality Tracker provides a comprehensive measure of the ties binding countries to the key economic powerhouses — China, the EU and the US. The tool covers more than 150 countries, which together account for more than 95% of global GDP. It includes detailed variables on trade, finance, commodities and development. The Tracker identifies underlying economic relationships since 2005, outperforming traditional macroeconomic models when assessing international spillovers from economic shocks such as COVID-19. It also casts new light on a variety of questions, such as: What is the size of, and sensitivity to, China’s economic and financial footprint in Africa? Is Latin America more closely aligned to the US, EU or China, and what has changed?
Fathom’s China model
The model allows the user to explore the effect on the Chinese economy of different domestic and external shocks, such as a domestic banking crisis. It can map the likely impact of Chinese policy choices, such as rebalancing the economy towards consumption and away from investment; and also of external policy moves — e.g., to cut China out of global supply chains in strategically key sectors. The model calculates the impact of these policy changes on the main macroeconomic and financial variables with a horizon out to 2040. It contains data at a quarterly frequency covering more than 110 variables.
The model is an updated version of a tool Fathom originally built in 2014, to explore the impacts of policies designed to help the Chinese economy to rebalance towards consumption. The key innovation is that the model includes Fathom’s own proprietary measure of Chinese GDP, the CMI, split into Fathom’s estimated expenditure and output components. It has recently been used to explore more realistic scenarios, such as a coordinated de-risking, a housing market slump, or a scenario in which China continues to acquire key technology that results in a better long-term outlook.
Fathom’s US and China Engagement Scores
Fathom’s comparative measure shows where and how US and Chinese engagement overseas is changing and whose influence is greater. It can also be used to predict a country’s likely alignment in a future geopolitical dispute.
Tensions are high and rising between the US and its allies on the one hand and China on the other, and countries in the Indo-Pacific are in the eye of the ‘de-risking’ storm. Fathom has combined information from more than 200 variables to measure US and Chinese engagement with the Indo-Pacific countries since 2000. Engagement is measured overall and over five dimensions: cultural, financial, military, political and trade. From these engagement scores we compare the relative influence of each of the two great powers, delve deeper into the nature of their engagement with each country, and even deduce the country’s likely alignment in case of a future geopolitical dispute. Fathom’s work reveals that US engagement with the Indo-Pacific remains higher than China’s, but that the gap has closed significantly.
US and China Engagement Scores are also available for Africa.
Our China indicators
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China macroeconomic
China Exposure Index
The CEI measures US/Sino trade tensions through the relative share price performance of US-listed corporations with over 15% revenue exposure to China. Lower CEI values indicate higher trade tensions and the relative under performance of these firms.
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China macroeconomic
China Growth Strategy
The China Growth Strategy indicator combines eleven metrics to monitor China’s progress in external, internal and financial rebalancing. An upwards shift indicates rebalancing, while a downward shift indicates a doubling down on past growth strategies.
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China housing
China House Price-to-Income Ratio
This indicator measures the affordability of residential housing in China. It charts how many years it would take a typical household in different regions to pay for an average-sized house if they saved all their disposable income.
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China macroeconomic
China Momentum Indicator
Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator (CMI 4.0) is designed as a better gauge of economic growth than China’s inaccurate official GDP data. Using ‘mirror’ statistics and advanced econometric analysis it provides a monthly estimate of China’s true GDP rate.
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China macroeconomic
China Non-Performing Loans
The NPL indicator is an independent estimate of China’s non-performing loan ratio, created to give a clearer picture than Beijing’s official numbers, which are suspiciously low given signs of financial distress in the economy.
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China macroeconomic
China Policy Gauge
Fathom’s policy gauge is a timely indicator of policy conditions in China. Positive values correspond to periods in which conditions are tight, relative to history, while negative values indicate looser-than-average policy conditions.
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China housing
China Time Taken to Finish Construction
This measure records the time taken to complete residential properties in China. The results imply the ‘construction’ phase has been deliberately prolonged, to keep resources (including labour) tied up and to prevent social unrest in times of slow growth.
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China housing
China Time Taken to Sell All Housing
This indicator tracks the time taken to sell complete and incomplete housing in China. This time is between 3 and 6 years depending on the region. If uncompleted was released onto the market, a significant downward correction in housing prices would take place.
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China housing
China Time Taken to Sell Completed Housing
This indicator tracks China’s housing supply, showing that the sum of completed and vacant residential floor space is roughly equal to the amount sold per year. State intervention in the supply and demand of housing makes this possible. -
China macroeconomic
China Under-employment Indicator
The CUI uses published estimates of labour productivity in China and Fathom’s proprietary measure of the country’s underlying growth momentum to produce our own estimate of spare capacity in China’s labour market.
Get in touch
For more information about our data, models and tools or to discuss your needs and how we can help, please fill out the form below.