We expect this Friday’s advance estimate of US GDP to show that the economy expanded at an annualised pace of just 0.2% in Q1. By contrast, business and consumer confidence are at record highs and our US economic sentiment indicator (USESI) points to robust economic activity. The current divergence between hard and soft economic data is unprecedented and is partially explained by transitory factors including seasonal adjustment quirks. But businesses and consumers, while optimistic, want more clarity on the administration’s...