A sideways look at economics

This weekend is the beginning of two-week long celebrations to mark Chinese New Year and with it the year of the rooster.

According to Chinese astrology, the traits of a rooster include being talkative, outspoken, emotionally volatile and even a little narcissistic.

Pointing to his inflammatory rhetoric and actions, some have likened these characteristics to US President Donald Trump!

Worryingly, Mr Trump has demonstrated a continuity from his campaign days, with one of his more aggressive pledges involving a 45% tariff on Chinese imports.

It may be China’s year of the rooster, but the trade relationship between China and the US is increasingly like a game of chicken.

China is riding a bike. Hurtling towards it is Donald Trump, driving a massive SUV. Who will be the chicken and swerve out of the way? Our bet is on China.

As our chart highlights, the US holds all the cards. What the US gets from China, it can get elsewhere. But China is unlikely to find another export market like the US. Its exports to the US account for nearly six times more as a share of its GDP than US exports to China.

新年快乐- Happy New Year!