Market participants seem to be unsure whether to interpret the March FOMC statement as dovish or hawkish. We retain our view that the most likely month for the first move in the Fed Funds rate is September.
Read about it on Reuters’ Alpha Now
- According to the official data released last week, Chinese growth hit a 24-year low of 7.3% in 2014.
- Our own China Momentum Indicator (CMI) stood at just 2.8% in March. It points to much weaker growth, and a more dramatic slowdown, than the official data.
- The CMI supports signals coming from commodities markets that China is slowing rapidly. In our view China is now in a hard landing.